New research report values Brain+ at DKK 4.1 per share in the base case, and DKK 6.4 in the bull case.
- The research report concludes that “Brain+ is in a strong position to grow towards a market leadership position within Digital Therapeutics for dementia, based on a unique and differentiated product offering… …combined with a strong clinical pipeline”.
- The valuation is based exclusively on revenue forecasts for the Brain+ CST product suite in Denmark and Germany and excludes 1) other markets, 2) other Brain+ technologies and product candidates, and 3) pharma deal revenues.
- industry value drivers are described as attractive (score of 7 out of 10), based on a mix of numerous factors; one of the “largest health care challenges of our time”, a successful pharma partnership, Rox Health (Roche), imminent product launches, first mover advantage in its field, and the DTx industry already being a USD 4.2 billion in 2019 and growing rapidly towards USD 33.9billion in 2030.
- The management team and board are highlighted as major strengths (score 8 out of 10).
The Swedish based research group, Analyst Group, specialized in life science and technology companies, has published a 23-page research paper on Brain+, a pioneer in the development of digital therapeutics for Alzheimer’s disease and dementia. The report values the Brain+ share at DKK 4.1 based on future cash flow projections. The Bull scenario puts the share value at DKK 6.4 and the Bear at DKK 1.7.
Analyst Group’s forecast value Brain+ at an EV of EUR 8.4 million
Analyst has forecasted probable revenues from sales of the and applied a discount high rate of 16% to account for the risks involved in DTx being a still maturing industry. The valuation has not accounted for the potential capital injection from the warrant execution of the BRAINP TO warrants the 17-31. October
Potential Pharma deals are not included in the forecast
While scaling with pharma deals is a central stated strategy of Brain+, the revenue forecast used in the research paper does not include potential cash flows from such deals and chooses to treat it as an additional upside and “have not included these in the model explicit, hence it should rather be seen as a lucrative option on the potential valuation going forward”. The analyst, however, believe that “further collaboration/licensing deal are to come during the forecast period”, in reference to the already existing Rox Health deal. The report calculates a pharma deal potential worth EUR 24 million from 2023-2027.
Only DK and German sales for the CST product suite are included in the forecast
The modelling on which the valuation is based includes future sales of the CST product line in Denmark and Germany from 2022-2026, and excludes later years and all other markets, including markets on the Brain+ roadmap, like UK and the US. Future Brain+ products candidates, like Computerized Cognitive Training for Mild Cognitive Impairment, or the Starry Night Memory test, are also excluded from the forecast.
About Analyst Group research
Coverage of Brain+ A/S via commissioned based research is a part of the expanded Brain+ Investor Relations Strategy (Link). Analyst Group was founded in 2014, a time when the information available regarding small and medium-sized companies was considered to be deficient. Therefore, Analyst Group’s founders chose to start an analysis service with the vision of highlighting and disseminating accurate information to provide better support in investment decisions.